May 15, 2009 by lamp post to liberty.

So in Washington state approval for yet a another tax hike for students went through without protest.  Its easy to place the burden on those who can’t already afford it or even pay the loans off post college.  College in sense has become the new high school for young adults waiting to get into the job market.  Some of my former profs have even refered to their instruction hear as “babysitting.”   So here we have young adult paying out to be babysitted through their own over worker and low-income.  And each budget cycle now the state legislature will approve at the request of the University Administration a tuition hike at the expense of these college students.  Admittedly some should not even bother.  However for other are you really getting the education you deserve, or do you not mind paying the salary increases to the College Administrators and coaches for their salary increases and bonuses.  Have you ever seen the spread sheet of your university, I did in 2005 during my activism at EWU its quite revealing where these tuition hikes go.  So lets see if State is cutting back revenue that mean program consoldation, dismissal of lower level staff, and non-tenured professors, adjuncts, and graduate assistants.  I having been one of the latter myself understand the important role these, release the important value these porition provide in providing mentors to college students who want to broaden opportunies to the graduate level.  Similarly seeing cuts in the 1st and 5 year contracts of teachers at at K-12.  So where does this leave us, last knigh as I caught new on KXLY WEA Conference in Spokane was quoted as saying this puts us behind twenty years.  So lets see if I was in studying in Europe ten years ago, receiving “a world class education face to face” and they are still way ahead of us in foreign language, humanities, and now even out sripping us sciences.  Lets not give this tuitition hike to fatten the pockets of the administrative fat cats or line the pockets of the universities cheer leaders.  The day after the article on tuition hike coverage in the Spokesman, was an article about the new salary and perks for the new basketball coach at WSU.  Give me break.  Lets focus on education for once!!!  I heard some discussion at a recent progressive college group conference call about a proposal lobby against college hikes, with other like minded groups.  I applaud these efforts.  I would urge you to support these organizations and their efforts.  Inform your legislator to vote against any future tuition hike, its your or your children’s future at stake.  “Bailout” your universities from working under the tuition hungry corporatist model that is now intellectually starving your universities.  What are your thoughts?

Posted in tuition hikes, college, 2009, Rants | 1 Comment »

March 23, 2009 by lamp post to liberty.

Welcome Readers of Spokompton.net I’m your new writer, I was asked to replace the former administrator, who is no longer in the region.  Most of my efforts with this blog my change over time, but would like to start off declaring that my hopes will be to periodically write on issues of the day that relate to progressive values of our local community and region, and as well discuss the progressive history of the Spokane.  I hope to keep much of my commentary focussed on the issues and not dwell on personal attacks, if you want yellow journalism just go read the letters to the editor  or KXLY’s sound off.

This Year I will write on quite abit of our labor history in Spokane, in celebration of the 100th anniversary of the labor & free speech movement.  So look soon for a future blog.  Please also share with me some of your thoughts as to what youd like to hear about on this site.

Posted in Writer, 2009, Rants | 3 Comments »

February 24, 2009 by Stuck In Spokane.

As many of you have noticed, this blog has sat empty for almost the last year, and I apologize for this. I have moved away from Spokane and am now living in California, I am no longer plugged in to Spokane politics in a way that I could effectively contribute to the political process in Spokane or Eastern Washington, because of this I am seeking someone who shares my political views and would like to take over writing this blog and be able to help advance the progressive adgenda in Spokane.

If you would like to do so please contact me at info@spokompton.net, this site still gets in excess of 10,000 hits a month and I think with active writing this would only increase.

Thanks for everything Spokane,

Stuck in Spokane

Posted in Writer, 2009 | 6 Comments »

April 8, 2008 by Alpha.

Today (-ish) Iraqi President Nouri al-Maliki issued an ultimatum to Shiite Cleric/Major Opposition Figure Moqtada al-Sadr: Either Sadr disbands his Mahdi Army, or he and his party forfeit the right to stand for election. A moderately spooky press release from a Sadr “spokesman” published in Iran offers the notion that doing so might be unconstitutional.*

I am not a scholar of the Iraqi Constitution, but I think that there might be some merit to such a claim in this instance. If a President unilaterally barring someone from election isn’t illegal it definitely should be.

The principle here is simple. As we should have learned from Vietnam, anti-democratic actions do not often have democratic results. If Sadr and his Members of the Iraqi Parliament are cast out, it will empower them. It will make their claims against the Maliki government more serious, and more legitimate. And it may well drive Sadr under the wing of Iranian clerics whose interests are not those of the Iraqi people.

The right answer here isn’t pretty. The Iraqi government must make a deal with the Sadrists. Only then can they reduce the tension between the parties that is fueling the Mahdi Army, the Badr Brigade, and the drive to find support in Iran’s clerical community.

Sure.

///////////////

*Al-Alam News, to which I linked above, is apparently an Arabic-language news service based in Iran. Bear in mind reading the release that the CIA World Factbook indicates that 3% of Iranians are ethnically Arab, and that 1% of Iranians speak primarily Arabic. Compare that with 51% of Iranians claiming Persian heritage and 58% of Iranians speaking Persian and Persian dialects (24% of Iranians are Azeri and 26% speak Turkic and Turkic dialects). However, Iran is also 98% Muslim, the practice of which requires at bear minimum the memorization of a great deal of Arabic.

My interpretation of all of these damnable facts is that Al-Alam News is likely more popular with more religious or more Arab Iranians. Oh, yeah, and most Iraqis.

Why Iraq? Al-Alam broadcasts one of the few round-the-clock television channels that can be received by most Iraqis without a satellite dish.

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

April 8, 2008 by Alpha.

Politics and Calculus. In one place. At the same time. I’m sure I’ve got your attention now!

Go ahead and spool up those thinking machines, kids, because I’m dead serious. Fortunately, all you need recall of your calculus is that “integrals” are just the areas under the curves that they “integrate” and that a “derivative” is just slope. Right?

The key variable in political elections is, depending on who you ask, some variation on the theme of “public opinion.” Measuring the opinions of the public at large proves difficult at best, and at certain times has the eerie tone of the Dark Arts. However, we political scientists have little choice but to posit a public and posit that this public has measurable opinions, lest we become entirely irrelevant. That our methods of measure remain inadequate is actually an excellent selling point for some researchers. I digress.

We have a rich language for pronouncing public opinion. “The public respect Candidate Jones a great deal due to his legislative record,” or “President Smith’s support among moderates has waned in response to his reform plans.” Let “public opinion” equal “P.”

We also speak frequently about the course of public opinion, which we might call “change in public opinion over time.” Still with me? We use this first derivative of P when we say things like “Candidate Davis has the wind at his back,” or almost any time we talk about momentum.

We even have language for the second derivative of public opinion, “the change (over time) in the change (over time) in public opinion.” When was the last time you heard some talking head say that he or she thought that “Candidate Bryant has stopped the bleeding,” or “Candidate Nathan has defused the situation” or similar?

Is public opinion “turning?” My Calculus professor always reminded us that derivatives are most interesting when they look the most boring. Any time a derivative equals zero, that means that the thing it is derived from has flattened–that is, if Candidate Williams has “stemmed the tide” then she may soon “turn things around” and if things go well for her she might even become the “presumptive favorite.” That happens because a tiny shift in a derivative can propagate through the others and into the master curve.

Whew.

In spite of the mess, we do have one generally approved measure of public opinion: elections. Sure, they’re the thing we want to be predicting, but never you mind. The wisdom of the ancients in politics suggests that beyond the second derivative, most people’s brains start trickling out of their ears.

Thus we reach several common perceptions concerning the relationship between pre-election polling and the results themselves. We assume that public opinion is much less elastic than it appears to be, and we also tend to assume that elections, like polls, are inflexible flashes in history (instant obsolescence! Don’t tell Bill Gates!).

I think that we may need a new way to look at voting behavior, and I may elaborate upon it later. Suffice it to say that I wonder if voters do not, in part, take voting as a part of the grand narrative of elections and opinions. Who doesn’t like an underdog? And how many Ohioans voted for Ralph Nader in 2000, knowing that he could not win?

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March 20, 2008 by Alpha.

Dear Senator Clinton,

I write to you with great regard. You have played a tremendous part in this year’s presidential election. You have every right to be proud of your contributions to the public good, and we hope to see great things from you in the future.

You were never my first choice. In fact, I don’t think I know any of your supporters personally. But do not think that this detracted from the pride I felt seeing you run. That sense of pride is gone.

I wonder if you don’t quite understand this, but America does not want you to be President. The Democrats will always have a place for you, but only if you do the right thing here. Let’s consider the possibilities that lie before you:

You might somehow pull out some kind of ugly and underhanded coup in Denver. You might get the nomination. But many Democrats and many Independents would be unable to forgive it, which would make a victory by Senator McCain much more likely.

Or, you might not get the nomination. You might instead, become a pariah.

Senator, I understand what drives you. You want to change the world for the better, right? That’s what this is all supposed to be about, isn’t it? So please, I ask you, leave this race now, with what remains of your dignity and prestige, and let’s make Barack Obama the President of the United States of America.

Respectfully Yours,

Alpha

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

February 5, 2008 by Alpha.

Today’s going to be a hell of a day.

Check this out. While it isn’t the most accurate or fair statement, I can certainly appreciate pith in the face of fact-checkery.

A lot of what is being discussed right now is about who will win today, but I want to take a moment to consider what the win conditions are for each candidate.

Hillary Clinton: Clinton needs to shut Obama out in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Deleware AND she needs to keep California, Massachusetts and Missouri close. So long as she can claim to have won where she was supposed to and so long as Obama doesn’t blow her out anywhere other than Illinois or maybe Georgia she won’t lose much stock.

Barack Obama: If Obama can take one of the states in New England AND win two from California, Massachusetts and Missouri he can call it a great day. Note that there’s room for an outcome where nether candidate can declare much of a victory, and for a solution where both candidates can trumpet their successes. I’d bank on the latter, myself.

John McCain: A McCain win looks like a big blowout-and for good reason. While a death blow is unlikely, if McCain can win everywhere other than Utah, Massachusetts, Colorado, Georgia and Tennessee (and the already-decided West Virginia), he can be very happy with the results.

Mitt Romney: Romney needs a big night. He would need to take Utah, Massachusetts, Colorado, Georgia OR Tennessee and he would need to overperform (tie?) in California and Missouri. Even then, he can expect to come out of tonight behind in the delegate count–this isn’t about putting McCain away, it’s about staying alive while the social conservatives decide who to back and fending off Mike Huckabee.

Mike Huckabee: He’s got West Virginia, but he’ll need to kick some butts in the South–Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennesee, Oklahoma, Missouri are all states he’s competing in, mostly competing with Mitt Romney. It may be that he’s pulling for second, but if he can knock off Romney it puts a serious shine on his future, if nothing else.

Thoughts?

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

February 3, 2008 by Alpha.

Alright, so I made some predictions. I think I did alright, but I made a lot of the same mistakes that most of us in the commentariat made.

I did particularly well on the Democratic side, where it was harder to screw up. I had Obama taking New Hampshire, which seemed sensible at the time. Of course, Clinton’s win there was something of a shocker all round. Someone’s going to write a very good book about it, surely.

The Republican race was more complicated, which provided me with more than ample room to get it totally wrong. I called Iowa for Huckabee, Wyoming and Michigan for Romney, but once again New Hampshire disappointed me. Really, I disappointed myself…

I made a rookie mistake: Never count out the old hand. I underestimated Hillary Clinton, to my own detriment, and I underestimated the tendency of Republican primary voters to rally around the familiar and the tenacity of John McCain. I overestimated the appeal of a social conservative like Huckabee among Neocons and Paleocons.

I am proud to report, however, that I predicted the collapse of the campaign of Rudy Giuliani, though I didn’t think he would manage so graceful an exit, and I was a little surprised at how enthusiastically he fell in with John McCain. I anticipated a more cagey response, in the vein of John Edwards and Bill Richardson.

So we are down to two Democratic candidates and two-and-a-half Republican candidates. It looks fairly likely that the Dems are going to go all the way to the convention, though Edwards didn’t take enough delegates to ensure a brokered convention. The GOP candidates are in a somewhat more vicious fight at the moment, though it looks a lot like the fighting between Obama and Clinton just before Edwards was squeezed out. Huckabee may not have long, barring some drastic shift.

Another round of  equally flawed predictions is forthcoming. I’m also rattling a large number of ideas around inside my head–I feel as though I’m on the verge of synthesizing something interesting. More to follow…

Mahalo!

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

December 30, 2007 by Alpha.

Iowa is a three-way toss-up between Clinton and Obama and Edwards. The biggest question is one which I have no good way to answer: who has more rural support in Iowa? Not a clue. Although I expect that Clinton has higher rural negatives she has an excellent ground game. She also has more at-large delegates endorsing her. I’m going to play it safe and take Clinton first, followed by Obama and Edwards.

New Hampshire has a larger percentage of undecided voters than Iowa, Obama has more momentum and a much closer margin on Clinton. Barring a disastrous showing in Iowa, I expect Obama to take New Hampshire, followed by Clinton then Edwards.

After a Clinton victory lap in Michigan I anticipate Nevada to go Clinton/Obama/Edwards, assuming Edwards is still in the race.

South Carolina is Obama’s firewall state, and I think he will win it.

The exhibition match in Florida is a toss-up, and so is February 5th, but I personally think that Senator Barack Obama is the candidate to beat, or as John Madden might say “Al, there’s a guy who controls his own, ah… his um… his future.”

PS The Huckster now leads in national polling. Is this story making itself? Discuss!

Posted in Democrats, 2008, Presidential, Campaigns | 1 Comment »

December 20, 2007 by Alpha.

Here’ s my best guess about what will happen in the early Republican primaries. This is based largely on my own analysis of polling data and my own gut feelings about where things are going.

I expect former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to win the Iowa Caucuses. His appeal seems to be broad-based and his Iowa campaign has practically caught fire. The response that he has gotten in polling there has been dramatic, if not especially predictive. Take a look at this image from Pollster.com for a good sense of how hot Huckabee’s mojo is. I suspect that Huckabee is playing well with rural Iowa Republicans particularly those who really liked Romney or Giuliani five or six months ago. Of course, at that point Rudy and Mitt really were the only game in town. These days in Iowa you might as well be a McCain fan. Seriously, take a look at that graph again: two candidates’ curves have positive slopes; Paul, in last place; and Huckabee, in first. At this point, anyone other than Romney spending money in Iowa is wasting their contributors’ money. Call it Huckabee, then Romney, then the also-rans.

Wyoming is a tough call. They like ‘em good and conservative in Wyoming–but a number of the precincts in Western Wyoming are heavily Mormon. I suspect that Romney will end up with about half the delegates, with Huckabee picking up four or five delegates, with a few going to McCain for old times’ sake. Of course, in the case of anything other than a Romney blowout the story will be not about how huge his win was but on how little it counts for.

Romney, Huckabee and McCain all have some momentum in New Hampshire. Romney has a healthy lead, but if Huckabee hits Iowa hard, he could well a victory. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that both Romney and McCain will collapse in New Hampshire, with the finish going: Huckabee, Romney, McCain.

I anticipate the continued deflation of Guiliani’s campaign, and I suspect that Romney’s money will run out. Either one might make some hay in Michigan ad Nevada, but I expect South Carolina and Florida’s primaries to fall to Huckabee.

If he can keep the winner’s smile on and make a big show when FEC time comes up, Huckabee has the best shot. He seems to have the religious thing and the spunky underdog thing going for him.

Huckabee’s biggest worries aren’t small: He needs Romney and Giuliani to go down like a pair of wounded U2’s over Russia. If they manage to muddy the waters as they go down or if they manage to raise enough money to keep at it once they start losing they could wound him. Lastly, if he doesn’t pick up Nevada or South Carolina or Florida his position on February 5th is tenuous.

These fears notwithstanding, I expect Huckabee to be the candidate to beat going into Super Duper Tuesday.

Posted in Republicans, 2008, Presidential, Campaigns | 1 Comment »