April 8, 2008 by Alpha.

Today (-ish) Iraqi President Nouri al-Maliki issued an ultimatum to Shiite Cleric/Major Opposition Figure Moqtada al-Sadr: Either Sadr disbands his Mahdi Army, or he and his party forfeit the right to stand for election. A moderately spooky press release from a Sadr “spokesman” published in Iran offers the notion that doing so might be unconstitutional.*

I am not a scholar of the Iraqi Constitution, but I think that there might be some merit to such a claim in this instance. If a President unilaterally barring someone from election isn’t illegal it definitely should be.

The principle here is simple. As we should have learned from Vietnam, anti-democratic actions do not often have democratic results. If Sadr and his Members of the Iraqi Parliament are cast out, it will empower them. It will make their claims against the Maliki government more serious, and more legitimate. And it may well drive Sadr under the wing of Iranian clerics whose interests are not those of the Iraqi people.

The right answer here isn’t pretty. The Iraqi government must make a deal with the Sadrists. Only then can they reduce the tension between the parties that is fueling the Mahdi Army, the Badr Brigade, and the drive to find support in Iran’s clerical community.

Sure.

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*Al-Alam News, to which I linked above, is apparently an Arabic-language news service based in Iran. Bear in mind reading the release that the CIA World Factbook indicates that 3% of Iranians are ethnically Arab, and that 1% of Iranians speak primarily Arabic. Compare that with 51% of Iranians claiming Persian heritage and 58% of Iranians speaking Persian and Persian dialects (24% of Iranians are Azeri and 26% speak Turkic and Turkic dialects). However, Iran is also 98% Muslim, the practice of which requires at bear minimum the memorization of a great deal of Arabic.

My interpretation of all of these damnable facts is that Al-Alam News is likely more popular with more religious or more Arab Iranians. Oh, yeah, and most Iraqis.

Why Iraq? Al-Alam broadcasts one of the few round-the-clock television channels that can be received by most Iraqis without a satellite dish.

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April 8, 2008 by Alpha.

Politics and Calculus. In one place. At the same time. I’m sure I’ve got your attention now!

Go ahead and spool up those thinking machines, kids, because I’m dead serious. Fortunately, all you need recall of your calculus is that “integrals” are just the areas under the curves that they “integrate” and that a “derivative” is just slope. Right?

The key variable in political elections is, depending on who you ask, some variation on the theme of “public opinion.” Measuring the opinions of the public at large proves difficult at best, and at certain times has the eerie tone of the Dark Arts. However, we political scientists have little choice but to posit a public and posit that this public has measurable opinions, lest we become entirely irrelevant. That our methods of measure remain inadequate is actually an excellent selling point for some researchers. I digress.

We have a rich language for pronouncing public opinion. “The public respect Candidate Jones a great deal due to his legislative record,” or “President Smith’s support among moderates has waned in response to his reform plans.” Let “public opinion” equal “P.”

We also speak frequently about the course of public opinion, which we might call “change in public opinion over time.” Still with me? We use this first derivative of P when we say things like “Candidate Davis has the wind at his back,” or almost any time we talk about momentum.

We even have language for the second derivative of public opinion, “the change (over time) in the change (over time) in public opinion.” When was the last time you heard some talking head say that he or she thought that “Candidate Bryant has stopped the bleeding,” or “Candidate Nathan has defused the situation” or similar?

Is public opinion “turning?” My Calculus professor always reminded us that derivatives are most interesting when they look the most boring. Any time a derivative equals zero, that means that the thing it is derived from has flattened–that is, if Candidate Williams has “stemmed the tide” then she may soon “turn things around” and if things go well for her she might even become the “presumptive favorite.” That happens because a tiny shift in a derivative can propagate through the others and into the master curve.

Whew.

In spite of the mess, we do have one generally approved measure of public opinion: elections. Sure, they’re the thing we want to be predicting, but never you mind. The wisdom of the ancients in politics suggests that beyond the second derivative, most people’s brains start trickling out of their ears.

Thus we reach several common perceptions concerning the relationship between pre-election polling and the results themselves. We assume that public opinion is much less elastic than it appears to be, and we also tend to assume that elections, like polls, are inflexible flashes in history (instant obsolescence! Don’t tell Bill Gates!).

I think that we may need a new way to look at voting behavior, and I may elaborate upon it later. Suffice it to say that I wonder if voters do not, in part, take voting as a part of the grand narrative of elections and opinions. Who doesn’t like an underdog? And how many Ohioans voted for Ralph Nader in 2000, knowing that he could not win?

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March 20, 2008 by Alpha.

Dear Senator Clinton,

I write to you with great regard. You have played a tremendous part in this year’s presidential election. You have every right to be proud of your contributions to the public good, and we hope to see great things from you in the future.

You were never my first choice. In fact, I don’t think I know any of your supporters personally. But do not think that this detracted from the pride I felt seeing you run. That sense of pride is gone.

I wonder if you don’t quite understand this, but America does not want you to be President. The Democrats will always have a place for you, but only if you do the right thing here. Let’s consider the possibilities that lie before you:

You might somehow pull out some kind of ugly and underhanded coup in Denver. You might get the nomination. But many Democrats and many Independents would be unable to forgive it, which would make a victory by Senator McCain much more likely.

Or, you might not get the nomination. You might instead, become a pariah.

Senator, I understand what drives you. You want to change the world for the better, right? That’s what this is all supposed to be about, isn’t it? So please, I ask you, leave this race now, with what remains of your dignity and prestige, and let’s make Barack Obama the President of the United States of America.

Respectfully Yours,

Alpha

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February 5, 2008 by Alpha.

Today’s going to be a hell of a day.

Check this out. While it isn’t the most accurate or fair statement, I can certainly appreciate pith in the face of fact-checkery.

A lot of what is being discussed right now is about who will win today, but I want to take a moment to consider what the win conditions are for each candidate.

Hillary Clinton: Clinton needs to shut Obama out in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Deleware AND she needs to keep California, Massachusetts and Missouri close. So long as she can claim to have won where she was supposed to and so long as Obama doesn’t blow her out anywhere other than Illinois or maybe Georgia she won’t lose much stock.

Barack Obama: If Obama can take one of the states in New England AND win two from California, Massachusetts and Missouri he can call it a great day. Note that there’s room for an outcome where nether candidate can declare much of a victory, and for a solution where both candidates can trumpet their successes. I’d bank on the latter, myself.

John McCain: A McCain win looks like a big blowout-and for good reason. While a death blow is unlikely, if McCain can win everywhere other than Utah, Massachusetts, Colorado, Georgia and Tennessee (and the already-decided West Virginia), he can be very happy with the results.

Mitt Romney: Romney needs a big night. He would need to take Utah, Massachusetts, Colorado, Georgia OR Tennessee and he would need to overperform (tie?) in California and Missouri. Even then, he can expect to come out of tonight behind in the delegate count–this isn’t about putting McCain away, it’s about staying alive while the social conservatives decide who to back and fending off Mike Huckabee.

Mike Huckabee: He’s got West Virginia, but he’ll need to kick some butts in the South–Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennesee, Oklahoma, Missouri are all states he’s competing in, mostly competing with Mitt Romney. It may be that he’s pulling for second, but if he can knock off Romney it puts a serious shine on his future, if nothing else.

Thoughts?

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February 3, 2008 by Alpha.

Alright, so I made some predictions. I think I did alright, but I made a lot of the same mistakes that most of us in the commentariat made.

I did particularly well on the Democratic side, where it was harder to screw up. I had Obama taking New Hampshire, which seemed sensible at the time. Of course, Clinton’s win there was something of a shocker all round. Someone’s going to write a very good book about it, surely.

The Republican race was more complicated, which provided me with more than ample room to get it totally wrong. I called Iowa for Huckabee, Wyoming and Michigan for Romney, but once again New Hampshire disappointed me. Really, I disappointed myself…

I made a rookie mistake: Never count out the old hand. I underestimated Hillary Clinton, to my own detriment, and I underestimated the tendency of Republican primary voters to rally around the familiar and the tenacity of John McCain. I overestimated the appeal of a social conservative like Huckabee among Neocons and Paleocons.

I am proud to report, however, that I predicted the collapse of the campaign of Rudy Giuliani, though I didn’t think he would manage so graceful an exit, and I was a little surprised at how enthusiastically he fell in with John McCain. I anticipated a more cagey response, in the vein of John Edwards and Bill Richardson.

So we are down to two Democratic candidates and two-and-a-half Republican candidates. It looks fairly likely that the Dems are going to go all the way to the convention, though Edwards didn’t take enough delegates to ensure a brokered convention. The GOP candidates are in a somewhat more vicious fight at the moment, though it looks a lot like the fighting between Obama and Clinton just before Edwards was squeezed out. Huckabee may not have long, barring some drastic shift.

Another round of  equally flawed predictions is forthcoming. I’m also rattling a large number of ideas around inside my head–I feel as though I’m on the verge of synthesizing something interesting. More to follow…

Mahalo!

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December 30, 2007 by Alpha.

Iowa is a three-way toss-up between Clinton and Obama and Edwards. The biggest question is one which I have no good way to answer: who has more rural support in Iowa? Not a clue. Although I expect that Clinton has higher rural negatives she has an excellent ground game. She also has more at-large delegates endorsing her. I’m going to play it safe and take Clinton first, followed by Obama and Edwards.

New Hampshire has a larger percentage of undecided voters than Iowa, Obama has more momentum and a much closer margin on Clinton. Barring a disastrous showing in Iowa, I expect Obama to take New Hampshire, followed by Clinton then Edwards.

After a Clinton victory lap in Michigan I anticipate Nevada to go Clinton/Obama/Edwards, assuming Edwards is still in the race.

South Carolina is Obama’s firewall state, and I think he will win it.

The exhibition match in Florida is a toss-up, and so is February 5th, but I personally think that Senator Barack Obama is the candidate to beat, or as John Madden might say “Al, there’s a guy who controls his own, ah… his um… his future.”

PS The Huckster now leads in national polling. Is this story making itself? Discuss!

Posted in Democrats, 2008, Presidential, Campaigns | 1 Comment »

December 20, 2007 by Alpha.

Here’ s my best guess about what will happen in the early Republican primaries. This is based largely on my own analysis of polling data and my own gut feelings about where things are going.

I expect former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to win the Iowa Caucuses. His appeal seems to be broad-based and his Iowa campaign has practically caught fire. The response that he has gotten in polling there has been dramatic, if not especially predictive. Take a look at this image from Pollster.com for a good sense of how hot Huckabee’s mojo is. I suspect that Huckabee is playing well with rural Iowa Republicans particularly those who really liked Romney or Giuliani five or six months ago. Of course, at that point Rudy and Mitt really were the only game in town. These days in Iowa you might as well be a McCain fan. Seriously, take a look at that graph again: two candidates’ curves have positive slopes; Paul, in last place; and Huckabee, in first. At this point, anyone other than Romney spending money in Iowa is wasting their contributors’ money. Call it Huckabee, then Romney, then the also-rans.

Wyoming is a tough call. They like ‘em good and conservative in Wyoming–but a number of the precincts in Western Wyoming are heavily Mormon. I suspect that Romney will end up with about half the delegates, with Huckabee picking up four or five delegates, with a few going to McCain for old times’ sake. Of course, in the case of anything other than a Romney blowout the story will be not about how huge his win was but on how little it counts for.

Romney, Huckabee and McCain all have some momentum in New Hampshire. Romney has a healthy lead, but if Huckabee hits Iowa hard, he could well a victory. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that both Romney and McCain will collapse in New Hampshire, with the finish going: Huckabee, Romney, McCain.

I anticipate the continued deflation of Guiliani’s campaign, and I suspect that Romney’s money will run out. Either one might make some hay in Michigan ad Nevada, but I expect South Carolina and Florida’s primaries to fall to Huckabee.

If he can keep the winner’s smile on and make a big show when FEC time comes up, Huckabee has the best shot. He seems to have the religious thing and the spunky underdog thing going for him.

Huckabee’s biggest worries aren’t small: He needs Romney and Giuliani to go down like a pair of wounded U2’s over Russia. If they manage to muddy the waters as they go down or if they manage to raise enough money to keep at it once they start losing they could wound him. Lastly, if he doesn’t pick up Nevada or South Carolina or Florida his position on February 5th is tenuous.

These fears notwithstanding, I expect Huckabee to be the candidate to beat going into Super Duper Tuesday.

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December 18, 2007 by Alpha.

About a week ago, it entered my mind to try to lay out what the big variables would be in the first part of the primary kerfluffle. I figured that if I could tease out some details I might find that one or another candidate might have some kind of procedural advantage. On the Republican side I found some pretty clear victory conditions for each of the candidates. If you haven’t seen that post, it can be found here.

While any of the Republican candidates has about a 50/50 chance of making it through the 8 contests they’ll have before February 5th and thence into the madness of Super Duper Tuesday, the Democrats seem committed to, well, not committing. My first topic: The Phantom Primaries!

Everyone in politics is aware that those who work for a state party ought to refrain from dissing the national party. Unfortunately for Democratic voters in Florida and Michigan, some of the Democratic leadership in their states seem to have missed that point. Both states moved their primaries up, both were warned of sanctions coming, and neither have done anything about it. The way it looks right now, neither of those primary votes will count: Michigan’s 157 delegates and Florida’s 210 delegates will be disqualified.

Both of these early winner-take-all primaries would likely have significantly aided Senator Clinton. The poll results may still give her a boost, but she may take some heat, too: she is the only major candidate to reject the national party’s rulings and campaign in those states.

This takes us into the Early Primaries!

In all, the Democrats will have 6 contests before Feb. 5 including those in Michigan and Florida. Here’s how I expect them to shake out:

• Iowa looks extra-exciting, with Edwards, Obama and Clinton all looking at picking up between 13 and 16 delegates. More here than in any other contest before Feb. 5, the candidates need to woo superdelegates (federal level elected officials and high-level party officials) who get to choose for themselves. Clinton has the most endorsements from superdelegates, so she might look to run away with Iowa. But if Obama or Edwards wins the people of Iowa, I have a hard time seeing those superdelegates turning on them.
• New Hampshire is similarly messy. While Clinton maintains a healthy lead in terms of the trends, Obama is picking up a head of steam even showing a lead in recent polling there. Edwards is again a sound third place.
• Michigan, whose delegates will likely not count at the nominating convention, is very likely to go to Clinton, as she holds a 25 point lead on Obama. That could well change, however, if Obama and Edwards beat Clinton in Iowa and if Obama wins New Hampshire.
• Nevada’s caucuses favor Clinton as they favor Giuliani and Romney. I anticipate that as the date approaches we will see some significant movement in polling. She currently stands to pick up about twice as many delegates as Obama (and four times as many as Edwards), but depending on how things shake out in Iowa and New Hampshire Obama or Edwards could have the exposure and money to pick up some rural delegates.
• South Carolina’s primary will probably narrow the field significantly. It’s likely that both Biden and Richardson will be through at this point. I anticipate that no more than two candidates will survive to participate in the festivities of February 5th.

On Super Duper Tuesday, the Democrats will assign another 2,064 delegates. On the Republican side I estimated that the odds of multiple candidates surviving the sheer volume of voting were slim. However, given the massive bankrolls of the top three Democratic candidates and the fact that (Clinton aside) they’re faced with at most four contests before Feb. 5, I wouldn’t be surprised if the votes were more or less split.

Once again, to the big finish: Keys to Victory!

• Clinton needs to show even with Obama in Iowa. She scores bonus points if she wins (no matter how narrowly) and if Edwards does well. A tight pack gives her maximum momentum going into New Hampshire. Her likely, albeit symbolic, victory in Michigan would put her in position to run the table. There’s a reason Senator Clinton’s name gets mentioned first.
• Obama needs to win Iowa. The bigger the victory the better. It appears as though the momentum is swinging his way at the moment, but the loss of the Register’s endorsement is a major one if only for the size of the story itself. A win, especially with poor performance from Clinton (and even Edwards) might put in over the top in New Hampshire. Even in this scenario, a Michigan loss seems unavoidable, but if Obama can pick up Nevada or South Carolina there’s a good chance he can win (or at least stay in the game) through Feb. 5. In that case, things will get very interesting.
• Edwards needs a perfect storm. If he can win in Iowa, and he must, he seems to be out of options. The simple fact is that he runs third in all the other contests before Feb. 5. Short of some kind of political Hail Mary (or maybe Statue of Liberty?) Edwards’ goose is cooked. I would suggest a Ciceronian treatise on the value of justice in a manifestly unjust world, but that’s just me.
• Biden needs… well, I’ve never been certain that Biden was really running for President. He certainly has all the foreign policy experience to make sense when he talks about ‘the Iraq,’ but he was never able to gain much traction on domestic issues. I’m thinking he’s really running for Secretary of State.
• Richardson… Richardson has his sights set higher. As Bob Russell joked, “If you squint real hard and tilt you head just so, it looks an awful lot like the Seal of the President of the United States.”

That’s it, boys and girls. My well-considered analysis of the Democratic and Republican primaries through February 5th.

I’ll post my Up/Down predictions in the next couple of days.

Posted in Democrats, 2008, Presidential, Campaigns | 3 Comments »

December 15, 2007 by Alpha.

A few days ago I realized, with a touch of humility, that I knew astonishingly little about the nuts and bolts of the Pesidential primary process outside of a vague understanding of how nominating conventions work. Quickly! to Wikipedia!

There are actually two remarkably informative Wikipedia entries: one for the Dems and another for the GOP. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find (properly filed) pages for the Green Party or the Constitution Party or the Communist Party, so I don’t know that I’d call this a thorough digest, but some interesting notes arose regardless.

First off, a topic I haven’t heard mentioned much: The Phantom Primaries!

The Republican Party of the great state of Wyoming, no doubt in a riotous fit of pique, decided in late August to get out in front of the bus, so to speak. The National Party penalized them–half of their 28 delegates. They’ve earned the right to be an early bump in the road, but it will be an awfully small one: 24 days later Florida will assign 57 (out of a possible 114 rating a D-).

This takes us into the Early Primaries!

The Republicans will assign just 229 delegates in 8 states before February 5th. The way the polling looks right now, here’s what that means in terms of the numbers of delegates we can expect to see early on:

• Iowa: Huckabee takes 11, maybe more. Romney needs to get 10 to have any juice going into the stretch. If any of the other candidates takes more than 5 delegates, it will probably be because another candidate got the ol’ goose-egg.
• Wyoming: I still haven’t seen any polling here. The Wyoming caucus will end up doling out over 6% of the pre-Feb. 5 delegates, more than the number New Hampshire will yield. And since I’ve seen no polling, I can’t help but see Wyoming as a chance for someone in the pack to make a big splash.
• New Hampshire is big because it’s the first winner-take-all contest. Even though it’s the smallest state (in terms of delegates) before Feb. 5, New Hampshire is the first opportunity for a deathblow to be dealt. The trend in polling favors Romney, though Huckabee leads in some recent polls. A win here for either may establish a clear front-runner, but if either finishes beyond third it could spell curtains.
• Michigan could pose a problem for Huckabee, as his gains of late have only just gotten him out of the cellar. Romney carries a hefty lead, followed closely by Giuliani, then McCain who is just now freefalling past Huckabee.
• Nevada’s caucuses favor Giuliani and Romney as well, but over the last several weeks every candidate other than Huckabee has been losing support, while he gains.
• South Carolina’s primary will depend very heavily on what happens leading up to it. Right now both Romney and Huckabee have significant momentum, but the road to SC could cripple either of them.

Then on February 5th, another 1,081 delegates will be assigned, and that flood seems likely to wipe away most of the competition.

That brings me to the big finish: Keys to Victory!

• Huckabee needs to perform in Iowa. Not just do well at the caucuses, but to do well gracefully. Then he will need a strong performance in Wyoming, or a miracle in New Hampshire or Michigan.
• Giuliani needs to survive till the Feb. 5 with some dignity intact. That may be impossible, as he trails in every primary state before Florida on Jan. 29. If Giuliani is still standing on Jan. 30, he may start to see daylight.
• Romney needs to put the pedal to the metal, especially in New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina-even narrow wins in those three states would launch him ahead of any competition and make him the clear favorite going into Florida, which would be his to take from Giuliani.
• McCain is bleeding. As far as I can tell, the only reason he’s still in the race is because if he drops out, he’ll be asked to endorse someone, which might disqualify him from a shot at the VP slot. A sudden shift in Iraq might help him, but I can’t imagine what sort of event it would take.
• Thompson would need to clean up in Wyoming, then make an articulate, direct, moving acceptance speech. Only if Jan. 5 is very very good for him does he pose a threat on Jan. 8 or later.
• Paul would need a series of scandals so tawdry as to offend even the Republican base–no mean feat for someone without a D after his or her name. Of course, anything is possible… Maybe a volcano? Or landsharks?

Well there you have it. I’ve handicapped to Republican race through Florida… Sort of. A similar breakdown for the Dems is on its way!

Okay, now you go.

Posted in Republicans, 2008, Presidential, Campaigns | 2 Comments »

December 10, 2007 by Stuck In Spokane.

Chris Gregoire has an important deadline coming up, a blackout period during which she cannot raise money for her re-election campaign, this is due to the legislature going into session. She has put out a plea to good Democrat’s to help her maintain her fundraising lead over Dino Rossi, and I for one intend to help her maintain that lead.

Click Here to Contribute to Chris’ Campaign

Every dollar will help her maintain a lead on the slime machine that is Dino Rossi and the state Repuglican party. We know that Chris has done great things for this state and will continue to do so in her next term, we just don’t want the start of her second to kick off on the same note as the last one. So please, everyone, donate what you can be it a dollar, five dollars, or even their maximum of 2,800 dollars!

There are many good Democrats running for other offices in the state that will not be limited by the legislature being in session, one of which is Peter Goldmark. He is running for Commissioner of Public Lands, a post that usually does not get much attention, despite how important it is to the environment around us. Peter is running to unseat 2-term incumbent Doug Sutherland, a man who has sold off our public lands to timber interests at Black Friday sale prices, and if re-elected will continue to rape our poor state to the point that we can no longer claim to live in the “Evergreen State.”

Click Here to Contribute to Peter’s Campaign

Please, do what you can to help these two worthy candidate out, they both are working to make the Washington we live in a better place to live.

Posted in Christine Gregoire, Dino Rossi, Governor, Democrats, Peter Goldmark, Elections, Commissioner of Public Lands, 2008, Washington | 1 Comment »